Wheat prices surged this week on US and European futures markets, reflecting concerns about tightening global supplies. New projections from the International Grains Council forecast lower production and rising demand into the 2026-27 season.
Wheat prices rose sharply at the start of this week on both the Chicago and Paris futures markets, driven in part by forecasts of shrinking stocks for the 2026-27 season. On the Paris futures market, the May contract price climbed from €194.50 on Monday to €197.00 on Tuesday. Similarly, at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), prices increased from $608.20 per bushel on Friday to $649.40 on Tuesday.
Contrasting factors in Europe and the US
In the EU, prices were held in check by ample stocks from last year’s harvest and optimistic expectations for the upcoming crop, with the strong euro also contributing to the subdued market. In contrast, the US market was buoyed by a weaker dollar and uncertainty about the new harvest due to ongoing drought conditions.
Less wheat, more demand
A new forecast from the International Grains Council (IGC) is helping to drive wheat prices higher. The IGC expects wheat production to fall while global demand continues to rise, signalling a shift in the market balance for the 2026-27 season. According to the IGC, production is unlikely to keep pace with increasing consumption.
IGC lowers global production estimate
This will lead to smaller stocks. The IGC estimates that global wheat production in 2026-’27 will reach 820.8 million tons, about 3% less than in the 2025-’26 season. The IGC predicts declines in several key exporting countries. The latest IGC estimate for wheat production in 2026-’27 is one million tons lower than last month’s estimate.
