Wheat and barley markets are showing significant shifts, with prices and forecasts reflecting uncertainty for the coming seasons. Key regions are facing production challenges while demand patterns are evolving.
Wheat prices partly reversed
Increases in wheat prices on the futures markets in Paris and Chicago were partly reversed on Tuesday. However, wheat production is forecast to decline in several important growing regions.
International barley demand grows
Demand for European barley is rising, as China, Saudi Arabia, Libya, Morocco, and Turkey have increased their requests for imports from the EU. At the same time, there are emerging concerns about the outlook for summer barley production in Russia.
Global wheat harvest outlook
According to the German consultancy firm Kaack, the global wheat harvest in the 2026-’27 season is expected to decrease significantly compared to the record crop of 2025-’26.
Regional production forecasts
In the EU, wheat production is projected to reach 127.3 million tonnes in 2026, a decline from 135.1 million tonnes last year. The US is expected to harvest 50.6 million tonnes, versus 54 million tonnes a year earlier. Other major wheat-producing countries are also anticipating lower harvest figures: Canada by 10%, Australia by 19%, and Argentina by 25%. Kazakhstan’s wheat harvest is expected to reach 14 million tonnes, which is 4 million tonnes lower than last year. Russia is forecast to maintain its current production levels, while India’s wheat output is set to rise by 2 million tonnes to reach 120 million tonnes.
Ending stocks remain substantial
Despite these declines, wheat ending stocks—including those for the current season in the EU—are expected to remain substantial, helping to cushion the impact of lower harvests in the near term.
