Wheat market forecasts for 2025-’26 have shifted downward. Both the US and EU expect reduced output and exports. Tough competition is influencing stock levels and trade flows.
Global USDA wheat forecast down
The global wheat outlook for 2025-’26 has been revised downwards. The US Department of Agriculture has slightly lowered its forecast for the global wheat harvest in its new WASDE report. The ending stock of wheat is expected to decrease by 740,000 tons to 277.51 million tons.
EU export estimates adjusted lower
Another forecast comes from the European Commission. It assumes that exports of soft wheat from the EU in the 2025-’26 season will be 1.5 million tons less than expected.
EU wheat stock projections up
The latest forecast indicates that the EU will export 29.5 million tons of wheat. Brussels expects the stock of soft wheat in the EU at the end of the current season to amount to 13 million tons. An earlier forecast assumed 11.7 million tons.
Competition reduces EU exports
The decrease in exports from the EU is a result of fierce competition on the world market. As a result, more wheat from France is being marketed within the EU.
