Global wheat supplies are swelling as EU and Russian harvests exceed expectations. Prices remain under pressure, though Egypt’s recent purchases offer some support.
Wheat market under pressure
Wheat prices are under pressure due to large harvests in many parts of the world. Egypt’s purchase of French wheat provides some relief for the market.
EU harvest outlook
According to the latest WASDE report from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), the EU will harvest the most wheat since 2021. The forecast was raised by 1 million tons compared to the July estimate, to 138.3 million tons.
Russia’s growing crop
Russia’s wheat crop is also turning out larger than expected. Consultancy firm IKAR increased its 2025 forecast by 1 million tons to 85.5 million tons. The firm also raised its outlook for Russian wheat exports in 2025/26 by 1 million tons, to 42.5 million tons.
French exports to Egypt
The positive news for price formation came from France, which has signed an export agreement with Egypt for the delivery of at least 200,000 tons of wheat. Analysts even expect the deal could reach 400,000 tons. In addition, Egypt purchased several shipments of 30,000 tons each from Romania and Ukraine. These sales also help ease pressure on the market.
