Fertiliser continues to play a central role in global food security, and recent geopolitical events in Iran have once again underlined just how exposed agriculture is to disruptions in energy and nutrient markets.
Deputy president Paul Tompkins of the UK National Farmers’ Union (NFU) said this week that efficient use of nutrients – remains essential to feeding the population, even as farmers face renewed price volatility in the light of the ongoing conflict.
Food security and fertiliser are inextricably linked. Manufactured fertilisers enable farmers to produce food reliably, at scale and at pace, while keeping prices affordable for consumers. In the UK, productive arable systems supported by targeted nutrient use allow farmers to feed around 70 million people every day from a relatively limited land base, while also meeting environmental and climate expectations.
Conflict exposes market vulnerabilities
The latest conflict has brought this balance into sharp focus. Disruption to shipping routes and energy supplies has exposed farmers to sudden and significant price shocks. With the Strait of Hormuz carrying around 20% of global oil and gas shipments, its effective closure sent shockwaves through fertiliser and fuel markets. Global oil prices surged to around $120 per barrel, with red diesel prices reported by UK farmers at anywhere between 92p (€1.06) and 138p (€1.59) per litre.
“This is more than a short-term shock; it has exposed a structural vulnerability to growing food.” — Paul Tompkins, Deputy President, UK National Farmers’ Union.
Fertiliser and gas price surges
Fertiliser markets have followed a similar pattern. Since late February, ammonium nitrate prices have increased by around 32% (£404/t to £535/t) (€466/t to €617/t), while urea prices have risen by 44% (£455/t to £653/t) (€524/t to €753/t).
Natural gas accounts for 60%–80% of nitrogen fertiliser production costs and UK gas prices peaked at over £1.50/therm (€1.73) in March, roughly double pre-Iran conflict levels.
For growers, these costs directly influence planting decisions and input strategies, with implications for future food production.
Crises reveal structural food vulnerabilities
Tompkins said change needed to take place: “This is more than a short-term shock; it has exposed a structural vulnerability to growing food.”
The UK currently imports around 60% of its nitrogen and, since the closure of its last ammonia plant in 2022, depends entirely on imported ammonia to manufacture fertiliser domestically. When global markets tighten, domestic food production is immediately exposed.
Maintaining yields and environmental priorities
Despite the pressures, the role of fertiliser in UK agriculture is not in question. The country’s temperate climate, combined with efficient nutrient use, delivers some of the highest wheat yields globally. Maintaining those yields is essential if the UK is to meet food demand while freeing up land for environmental priorities set out in Defra’s Land Use Framework.
Integrating organic and mineral fertilisers
Organic manures and biological inputs have an increasingly important role to play in nutrient management, soil health and the wider circular economy. However, evidence shows they cannot deliver required yields alone. Long-term research, including work at Rothamsted, demonstrates that integrated systems using both organic and mineral fertilisers consistently outperform either approach in isolation. Precision and timing are as important as total application rates in maximising nutrient uptake while protecting soils and water.
Strategy shifts require careful support
Transforming farming systems is often suggested during periods of crisis, but Tompkins cautions against oversimplification. Shifts in nutrient strategy require time, investment and experience, and must be supported by the wider supply chain. Organic materials, while valuable, release nutrients more slowly and less predictably than manufactured fertilisers and perform best as part of carefully planned systems tailored to local soil types, weather patterns and cropping rotations.
Progress on nitrogen use efficiency
UK farmers have already made substantial progress in improving nitrogen use efficiency. By 2024, 57% of farms were operating formal nutrient management plans. Since 1990, nitrogen fertiliser use has fallen by around 50%, while nitrogen balances have reduced by more than a third. These figures demonstrate that productivity gains and environmental improvement can go hand in hand when farm-level decision-making is supported by research and policy.
Farmers facing limited government support
However, confidence within farm businesses remains fragile. Compared with producers in Europe and the United States, English farmers have limited policy mechanisms to buffer against major market shocks. During the last period of extreme volatility following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, direct support totalled £1.4 billion (€1.62 billion). Today, with direct payments being phased out, delinked payments amount to just £20 million (€23 million).
Future resilience depends on innovation
Looking ahead, resilience will depend on continued investment in innovation. Advances enabled by England’s Precision Breeding Act, such as crops with improved nitrogen-use efficiency or greater drought tolerance, offer long-term potential. But farmers and feed supply chains need stability and government backing to invest with confidence.
Managing fertiliser for food security
In an increasingly uncertain world, securing a sustainable food supply starts with recognising fertiliser not as a problem to eliminate, but as a tool to use wisely. Efficient nutrient management, grounded in evidence and supported by innovation, will remain fundamental to feeding the nation.
