Brazil is on track to achieve a record-breaking grain harvest this season, with total production expected to reach 356.3 million tonnes, a 1.2% increase from the previous cycle. Despite slight decreases in average yields for key crops like corn and rice, expanding acreage and strong performances of soybeans in particular are fuelling growth. Recent figures from the National Supply Company (Conab) highlight Brazil’s growing role as a global agricultural powerhouse.
Brazil is expected to produce 356.3 million tonnes of grains in the current season, representing an increase of 1.2% – or 4.1 million tonnes – compared to the previous cycle. If confirmed, this will mark a new record for the volume harvested by Brazilian producers. The figures come from the latest survey by the Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (Conab), released last week.
Expansion of planted area continues
The planted area in the current cycle is projected to grow by 2%, reaching 83.3 million hectares. This means less than 10% of Brazil’s entire area.
“We had a very positive result for the first corn crop and have high expectations for the second crop.” – Sílvio Porto, Acting President of Conab
Yield and crop performance trends
However, average yields are expected to decline slightly, from 4,310 kilograms per hectare in the previous season to 4,276 kg/ha in the 2025/2026 crop year. Despite the projected 0.8% drop, this would still represent the second-highest national average yield ever recorded in the agency’s historical series.
“We had a very positive result for the first corn crop and have high expectations for the second crop,” said Conab’s acting president, Sílvio Porto. Brazil can harvest up to 3 crops per year on the same land, with more than 100 million tonnes produced during the second or third crop cycles.
Soybean harvest heads for records
Conab forecasts another record soybean harvest, estimated at 179.2 million tonnes. Reduced rainfall in March improved field conditions, allowing harvest progress to reach 85.7% of the planted area.
Even with some key soybean-producing states underperforming compared to the previous cycle, the national average yield is expected to be the highest ever recorded at 3,696 kilograms per hectare.
Corn output and supply forecasts
For corn, the country’s second most widely grown crop, total production is projected at 139.6 million tonnes, a decline of 1.1% from the previous season. While the area planted with the first crop increased, the second crop is expected to decline by 3.6% compared to the 2024/2025 season. Sowing of the second corn crop is nearing completion, with fields currently ranging from germination to flowering stages.
“It is important to note that we are being conservative at this stage regarding second-crop corn yields. If weather conditions are favourable, production could exceed last year’s levels,” he added.
Conab has revised its corn ending stocks estimate following adjustments to total production. Stocks are now expected to reach 12.8 million tonnes by the end of January 2027.
Exports are forecast at 46.5 million tonnes, while domestic consumption is estimated at 96.5 million tonnes, with only slight variation.
Other gains and weather insights
According to Conab, rice production is also expected to decline, with output projected at 11.1 million tonnes – 12.9% lower than the previous season.
Similarly, total bean production is estimated at 2.9 million tonnes, down 5.2% year-on-year. Despite the reduction, the volume is sufficient to meet domestic demand.
Cotton production is expected to reach 3.8 million tonnes of lint, a decrease of 5.8% compared to the previous cycle, reflecting a 2.1% reduction in planted area to 2 million hectares.
Weather conditions have so far been favourable, supporting good crop development.
Sorghum production is projected to increase by 1.4 million tonnes compared to the previous harvest.
Meanwhile, wheat output is forecast at 6.6 million tonnes, with planting set to begin later this month.
