Soaring fertiliser prices across the Baltic region are pushing grain producers to the brink, jeopardising sowing plans and threatening feed supply chains. Industry leaders warn that heightened input costs could force farmers to abandon fields, sharply reduce grain output, and spark product shortages. The deepening crisis, driven by global conflict and supply disruptions, has already sent shockwaves through Baltic agriculture and food markets.
Feed producers across the Baltic region are bracing for the fallout of the Middle East conflict, as surging fertiliser prices threaten to curb grain production and drive up costs throughout the value chain.
Estonia: Grain sowing at risk amid unprecedented fertiliser costs
Estonian farmers are considering scaling back grain sowings this summer or autumn as fertiliser prices spike sharply, raising concerns not just about profitability but also about supply, according to local industry representatives.
Import Costs soar, threatening farmer viability
Ants-Hannes Viira of the Estonian Chamber of Agriculture and Commerce described the current situation in the grain industry as unprecedented, with prices for some fertilisers rising by 30–50%. Ammonium nitrate has increased by around two-thirds compared to last autumn.
With Estonia importing roughly €120 million worth of fertilisers annually, the additional cost burden for the sector could reach €50–60 million, Viira estimated.
Baltic agriculture is facing its greatest threat in decades as skyrocketing fertiliser costs force farmers to make impossible choices between sowing, supply, and survival.
Future sowing uncertain despite advance purchases
At the current costs, sowing summer crops may no longer be economically viable, as the risk of losses is considered high, Viira warned. However, with around 90% of fertilisers for the current season already purchased in advance, uncertainty is growing primarily around autumn sowings.
Latvia: Farmers prepare to leave fields uncultivated
Similar concerns are voiced in neighbouring Latvia, where a sharp rise in fertiliser prices has not only put the sowing season in peril, threatening serious consequences for feed and food production, but has also raised the risk of a migration wave in Europe, Juris Lazdiņš, head of the Zemnieku Saeima, a regional parliament, told local press.
Production costs outpace revenues, prompting drastic measures
“For the first time in the last 20 years, even before the start of sowing, it is clear that production costs exceed potential revenues, even with optimistic yield forecasts,” Lazdiņš warned.
According to Lazdiņš, farmers are already planning to leave some fields uncultivated. In Latvia, the area of such land could triple.
“In a worst-case scenario, farmers could begin abandoning cultivation en masse by August, as every hectare would be a loss,” Lazdiņš said.
Fertiliser crisis heightens regional vulnerabilities
The fertiliser market crisis has made the Baltic region particularly vulnerable. In many cases, farmers may need higher fertiliser application to stabilise yields, especially following periods of nutrient leaching. The region is also fully dependent on fertiliser imports.
Finland: Supply chain disruptions hit food markets
The fallout from supply chain disruptions is already showing up on grocery store shelves in Finland, with shortages of both eggs and beef becoming noticeable in recent weeks.
Egg and beef shortages show deepening crisis
Amid the crisis, the already reeling grain production in Finland has plunged into a full-fledged crisis, Tero Hemmilä, chairman of the Finnish Agricultural Producers and Forest Owners’ Confederation, has warned.
“The shortages of eggs and beef demonstrate that these supply chains are no longer functioning properly,” Hemmilä said.
